It doesn’t make sense, if you live in a deep blue state, to hold your nose and vote for Clinton. Simply put, a vote for Stein in these states, not only WON’T, but CAN’T, be a vote for Trump. This is because we have a winner-take-all, state-by-state electoral college system of electing presidents. The national vote total is irrelevant. Only the 50 state-based electoral college votes count.
As the election approaches, Trump’s nose dive in the polls provides a clear picture of why voting for Stein in deep blue states can’t help Trump. Numbers tell the story.
The latest compilation of polling data in Massachusetts from RealPolitics.com show Clinton with 53% of the vote and Trump with 28%. We don’t know the percentage of Clinton’s voters on the left who are only voting for her out of Trumpophobia. Since we’re not a big percentage of the voting public, I doubt such people comprise more than 10% of her total support. What if those 10% voted for Jill Stein. Trump’s percentage would stay the same, Clinton’s would drop to 48% so she’d still win by 20%. Stein’s percentage would jump to 8%, which would be a real eye-opener and a boost for those fighting climate change.
The latest compilation of polling data in New York from RealPolitics.com show Clinton with 52.7% of the vote to Trump’s 31.7%. California is similar: 51% to 31%. If 10% of Clinton supporters voted, instead, for Jill Stein, Jill would get 8% of the votes in those states. That’s important because 8% in those relatively populous states, especially California, would virtually assure her of getting 5% nationally.
A 5% national total guarantees the Green Party a place on the ballot in all 50 states in the next Presidential election. The Green Party spent $500,000 on qualifying campaigns for this election cycle and it is only on the ballot in 38 states. It would give the party a lift next time around to have this taken care of in advance.
Moreover, those who hold their noses and vote for Clinton in blue deep states are throwing away their votes. Clinton would win those states anyway. Worse, by increasing Clinton’s majority they’d boost policies they disagree with by expanding Clinton’s “mandate.”
Something could happen in the two weeks before the election to undermine my argument. It pays to monitor the news and the polls. If things don’t change, however, voting Green in places like, Massachusetts, New York, California, Oregon and Washington will aid the Greens without helping Trump. Please don’t let fear cloud your judgement. Don’t blow your chance to vote your beliefs.